Stratagem Group conducted its augural Stratagem Roundtable on 7 December 2021. The topic of discussion was “Clean Energy Transformation”. The event gathered a panel of distinguished subject matter experts for a full-day closed-door scenario-planning session:
- Mr Ignatius Lim (facilitator), Senior International Adviser, APAC Corporate Relations, Shell Eastern Petroleum
- Mr Donald Koh, Planning and Business Development Advisor, Low Carbon Solutions, ExxonMobil Asia Pacific Pte Ltd
- Dr Philip Andrews Speed, Senior Principal Research Fellow and Head, Energy Security Division, Energy Studies Institute, National University of Singapore
- Dr. Chen Gang, Assistant Director and Senior Research Fellow, East Asian Institute (EAI), National University of Singapore
- Mr Philip Lim, Director and Principal Consultant, RHT Green
- Mr Yu Kaho, Senior Analyst, Asia Politics and Energy, Verisk Maplecroft
A revolutionary transformation of the energy sector appears inevitable and with it will come much disruption, challenges and opportunities. Less clear is the “What” (needs to be done), “Who” (by who) and “When” (by when) of this transformation. Although the causal factors and remedial actions are science-based, trying to reach an agreement on concrete actions even at the national level, let alone the regional or global stage is an uphill task. But this is where having conversations across boundaries of nations, of industries and of communities will be helpful as the hopes and fears of the challenges and calls to actions are better understood and possibly addressed.
The Stratagem Roundtable session took the form of a scenario planning exercise where the following questions were deliberated:
- Is it simply about moving from fossil fuels to renewable energies?
- What are the macros in these countries/regions in terms of economic development/imperatives, energy demand/supply/structure and commitment to climate targets?
- What are the policy measures in-placed to achieve these targets? What are the challenges and opportunities over the next 5-10 years?
- What is the state of risk assessment in each country’s decision-making cycle, including environmental, compliance, ethics, and non-technical risks?
- How viable is a shift from centralised to de-centralised energy systems, or from a monopoly to community-based power generation?
- What are the factors that would impact the pace of a country’s energy transition?
- How can multilateralism and cooperation help strike a balance between energy security, energy equity and environmental sustainability?
- How can national targets be effectively met through local policies and roadmaps?
At the end of the session, the panel constructed four plausible scenarios based on the two critical uncertainties identified. This set of scenarios will serve as a framework for Stratagem Group’s further and deeper exploration for better understanding of the investment risks and opportunities in areas related to Clean Energy Transformation.